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Uncertainty Defines Summer Weather Outlook

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When you combine the current ENSO-neutral tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures with the common spring predictability barrier, you have two strikes against weather outlook accuracy. 

If El Nino or La Nina were driving weather models, global seasonal conditions can be predicted with higher probability months in advance. “ENSO neutral gives us pause about going too far with predictions,” says John Baranick, DTN ag meteorologist. “However, we currently have a greater probability of verifying a hotter and drier forecast.” 

He says the DTN forecast shows hotter and drier than normal for most of the summer (June-August) between the Rockies and the Mississippi River. That forecast doesn’t mean no rain or no breaks in the heat. “But on average, I don’t think a lot of farmers are going to like the weather pattern under the current forecast,” Baranick says. 

Influence of ocean temperatures

Summer weather predictions can change if ocean temperatures trend on the warmer or cooler side of neutral. On the warmer side of neutral, closer to El Nino, farmers would see a more active storm track and get more rain with cooler temperatures. 

The cooler side of neutral often locks weather patterns in place for longer stretches of hot and dry conditions. “Plants don’t like that. They like variability,” Baranick says. “We don’t have a good idea yet which side of neutral, which can really change the forecast.” 

As meteorologists develop long-range forecasts to understand what to expect over larger areas, finding an analog year that fits in a neutral climate pattern is difficult. Baranick is a bit nervous about the current forecast trending like the June-July dry heat of 2021 that significantly impacted the western Corn Belt.  

“All weather is local, and it’s never the same exact degree as 2021 — just the same idea. The challenge becomes some of this same area is still dealing with long-standing drought,” he says. 

Drought update

Drought severity has decreased in some areas, especially in Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri through the eastern Corn Belt states. In areas not dealing with drought, heavy early April rains led to flooding and saturated soils in southern Illinois, Kentucky and along the Ohio River and south. The summer outlook does not show persistent rainfall patterns in the eastern Corn Belt. 

Unfortunately, drought is much worse than last year in the Dakotas and Nebraska, and over some good cropland, Baranick says. In early April, Nebraska had 51%, South Dakota had 74% and North Dakota had 54% of state corn production in moderate, severe or extreme drought. Nationwide, 28% of total corn production was within a moderate or more intense drought area. 

“Some April and May rains will help somewhat, but these areas are suffering from three to five years of long-standing drought. It will take time to replenish soils 4 to 8 inches behind normal,” Baranick says. 

Drought areas have still proven an ability to produce 200- to 250-bushel corn with just-in-time rains, thanks to better crop genetics. Corn growers can be pleasantly surprised come harvest when yield-saving rain before pollination/grain fill interrupts a below-normal rainfall summer. 

“The deeper we get into summer, the less confident we are with current forecasting. One small temperature movement in the Pacific Ocean, or the location of a persistent upper-level ridge, can lead to big changes in temperature and precipitation,” Baranick says. 

Global weather outlook

Some big global weather question marks could impact major crop production areas. Moisture deficits continue for Brazil’s crucial second (safrinha) corn crop, which comprises 75% of its production. “Late April rains helped to ease dryness concerns in Brazil for their safrinha crop, but there could be hidden issues,” Baranick says. 

China has been dry, and its corn and soybean production could suffer due to the hotter summer forecast. The Black Sea region is getting some rain to chip away at its long-term drought that impacts corn, wheat and sunflower production. Australia also has dry areas ahead of planting its wheat and canola crops. 

Overall, as DTN reported, the extreme climate is making Earth drier — so much so that the soil moisture loss is affecting the wobble in Earth’s rotation. Big crop-producing areas like China’s Manchuria region, central Brazil and Argentina, and the U.S. Great Plains, Southwest and Southeast coast all show a consistent drying trend.  

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Content provided by DTN/Progressive Farmer

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